Balancing Healthcare, Public Policy and Politics with Linda de SeifeTuesday, May 18th was Super Tuesday 2010, and pundits of all political stripes have analyzed the results of primaries and special elections held that day. Most seem to agree that there is a rebellion growing amongst American voters.
Basically, the poll numbers discussed in previous columns haven’t changed much, and if anything, have trended more negative toward incumbents. So, here I want to discuss one race in particular that Republicans need to learn from for the fall 2010. That race is the special election in PA-12 (Pennsylvania) to replace the late John Murtha.
The situation is that the district has an overwhelming Democratic registration majority. John Murtha represented the district and “brought home the bacon” for decades. The Democratic candidate, Mark Critz, was a Murtha staffer, and is therefore well known in the district. Despite all these factors, right up to election day, most major polls had the race a dead heat. Yet, Critz went on to defeat Republican Tim Burns by an unexpectedly large 8-point margin.
Republicans were understandably disappointed, but they need to learn from this. Critz ran as pro-gun and pro-life, said he would have voted against health care reform, and is opposed to cap-and-tax. These are Republican issue positions, yet Critz was able to co-opt them. Thus the question: Who is the real deal and who just talks the talk? Will Critz go back to Washington as a Member and vote with Nancy Pelosi as his mentor did, or will he truly vote based on what he told his constituents in order to get elected?
The Republicans need to know that this is a tactic that Democrats will use in November, and they need to nip it in the bud. PA-12 showed that simply running against the national Democratic establishment doesn’t work. Candidates need to know their district and know the folks and what they’re thinking. As this column has mentioned several times, all politics is local; that hasn’t changed. The Republican positions are in tune with the majority of Americans’ views, but they need to take it district by district. PA-12 gave Democrats a blueprint for November, which is basically, if you need to run to the right to get elected, do it. At the end of the day, if they do that, they could still end up with the majority. The question then will be, will they still try to govern from the left, or will Nancy Pelosi no longer be able to control her members?
For the Republicans, they need to stop a repeat of PA-12 by challenging Democrats who attempt to outflank them. They need to challenge the voters to choose between “the real deal” and a counterfeit. In 2008, and today, Barack Obama continues to say one thing that people want to hear and to reel them in, and then do another. The American people cannot fall for this again.
So, before you vote in November think: Real deal or counterfeit?
The Center for Health Transformation (www.healthtransformation.net) has a daily “news you can use” post relating to the implementation of the health care reform law. On May 23rd, they published an article from thehill.com (http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/domestic-taxes/99387-study-healthcare-law-encourages-small-businesses-to-stay-small) which reports on a study by the National Center for Policy Analysis (NCPA) showing that tax credits in the new law could negatively impact small business hiring.
The new law provides a 50% tax credit to companies with fewer than ten employees who offer health insurance and whose employees’ average annual wages are $25,000. The tax credit is reduced as more employees are added to the payroll.
Pamela Villarreal, a senior NCPA analyst says, “If a business can make a decision to substitute capital for labor – say, contract the procedure out or automate it – I believe (losing the tax credit) will play an important part in the reluctance to hire. It’s puzzling that we have this perverse incentive not to have business grow by not encouraging them to hire additional workers.”
This column will continue to provide updates on the implementation of the law and their impact. Stay tuned.
Quote of the Month: “Society is infested by persons who, seeing that the sentiments please, counterfeit the expression of them. These we call sentimentalists – talkers who mistake the description for the thing, saying for having.” – Ralph Waldo Emerson
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